Urban Expansion Simulated by Integrated Cellular Automata and Agent-Based Models; An Example of Tallinn, Estonia

From 1990 to 2018, built-up areas in Tallinn, Estonia’s capital city, increased by 25.03%, while its population decreased −10.19%. Investigating the factors affecting urban expansion and modeling it are critical steps detect future trends plan for a more sustainable environment. Different models have been used investigate, predict, simulate recent years. In this paper, we coupled cellular automata, agent-based, Markov (CA–Agent model) novel manner address complexity of dynamic simulation, generate heterogeneity space, define complicated rules, employ suitability analysis. CA–Agent model, cells agents, model’s outcome emerges from agents’ interactions over time using rules behavior their decisions concerning adjacent neighboring probabilities spatial changes. We performed model run two times 2018 2030. The first simulated results were validate performance model. Kappa showed 0.86, indicating relatively high fit, so conducted second 12-year up year illustrated that these parameters, overall will reach 175.24 sq. km with an increase 30.25% total Thus, implementing study area temporal changes land conversion represented present planning requiring regulation encroachment on agricultural forest lands.